Tue, Mar 12, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 010 | 215 | 234 |
| ANA | 28 | 18 | 02 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:56ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jacob Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 13:59ANADaniel SprongGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 14:16NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.00 xG1–3
- P3 15:14NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:26ANAJacob Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:48NSHKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 3:49ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:47NSHNick Bonino: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:24ANAAdam Henrique: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:49ANATroy Terry: Holding2 min
- P3 4:49NSHP.K. Subban: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:41ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:41NSHP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:36ANAJaycob Megna: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 13:51ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Simmonds – Granlund2:22
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Granlund – Arvidsson5:44
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- McLeod – Jarnkrok – Sissons2:14
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Boyle – Turris – Smith8:18
xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ellis – Ekholm3:15
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis13:38
xG 0.60–0.66 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Subban – Josi2:11
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ritchie – Sprong8:32
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore6:56
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones8:33
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Terry8:16
xG 0.16–0.58 (21%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:20
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Fowler – Larsson16:17
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Holzer – Megna8:03
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).