Wed, Mar 13, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 29 | 313 | 113 | 635 |
| EDM | 213 | 18 | 018 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34NJDKenny AgostinoAssists: Andy Greene, Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:37EDMSam GagnerAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Matt Benning · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:22EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 19:41NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 6:23NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 12:49NJDJohn QuennevilleGWGAssists: Kurtis Gabriel, Will Butcher · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 16:32NJDKevin RooneyAssists: Kenny Agostino, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.13 xG5–2
- P2 19:19EDMMatt BenningAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 12:06NJDBlake ColemanSHAssists: Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.24 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:09EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:09NJDKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:30NJDColton White: Holding2 min
- P1 12:30NJDDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08EDMAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16EDMOscar Klefbom: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 16:42EDMKris Russell: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:42NJDKurtis Gabriel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P3 11:39NJDWill Butcher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:33NJDBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:04EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGabriel – Anderson – McLeod5:26
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Agostino – Rooney9:14
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Noesen7:46
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stafford – Pietila – Quenneville11:27
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Butcher14:26
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Santini – White10:56
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Butcher – Santini2:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Draisaitl – McDavid4:26
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kassian – Khaira – Cave3:32
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid10:46
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Cave4:03
xG 0.04–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse15:28
xG 0.99–0.26 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning12:11
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:08
xG 0.40–1.14 (26%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).