Wed, Mar 13, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Rangers 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 07 | 18 | 122 |
| VAN | 08 | 314 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:07VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Josh Leivo, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:34VANTyler MotteGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Jacob Markstrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 9:45VANTyler MotteAssists: Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P3 10:28NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:35VANJake VirtanenENAssists: Tanner Pearson, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:08NYRTony DeAngelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:23NYRChris Kreider: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P2 4:23NYRChris Kreider: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:45NYRBrendan Lemieux: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 17:03VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:56VANJay Beagle: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:56NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:20NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:54VANJosh Leivo: Interference2 min
- P3 4:21VANTroy Stecher: Holding2 min
- P3 9:35VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad5:10
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Namestnikov – Buchnevich2:27
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Namestnikov – Chytil5:58
xG 0.07–0.25 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Lemieux – Howden3:54
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Smith6:00
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei2:54
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk5:54
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Granlund – Motte7:38
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Virtanen – Goldobin – Gaudette6:14
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson7:41
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pearson – Horvat4:04
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Sautner11:17
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Brisebois – Stecher8:01
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Biega14:08
xG 0.73–0.56 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).