Thu, Mar 14, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 38 | 211 | 528 |
| BUF | 07 | 012 | 07 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:40PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 15:07PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 17:08PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 10:07PITNick BjugstadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 18:02PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Zach Trotman, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:47PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:55BUFCasey Nelson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45PITTeddy Blueger: Interference2 min
- P2 16:25BUFMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:57BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:57PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41BUFJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:37BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Blueger10:22
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon7:33
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – McCann13:24
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blandisi6:09
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Trotman10:30
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz13:13
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Pettersson16:35
xG 0.34–0.66 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:36
xG 0.82–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Skinner11:11
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Wilson7:11
xG 0.03–0.20 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Nylander – Mittelstadt10:22
xG 0.07–0.37 (17%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin17:17
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Ristolainen15:15
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Scandella – Nelson10:59
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).