Thu, Mar 14, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 214 | 17 | 532 |
| PHI | 05 | 29 | 010 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Michal Kempny, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:30WSHLars EllerAssists: Brett Connolly, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 1:03PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:43WSHBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 9:48WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 12:22PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Ryan Hartman, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:34WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Michal Kempny · Snap, 0.71 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:00WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 5:06PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 19:00PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
- P3 5:57PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:06WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:41WSHNick Jensen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Connolly11:03
xG 1.09–0.04 (97%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Boyd – Stephenson – Burakovsky9:15
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana10:17
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:06
xG 0.52–0.83 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov15:28
xG 1.54–0.41 (79%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Jensen – Kempny2:12
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny11:20
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Lindblom12:25
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Knight – Varone – Bailey5:33
xG 0.01–0.08 (6%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Konecny – Patrick10:14
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Laughton – Raffl – Hartman10:03
xG 0.24–1.17 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg12:22
xG 1.09–0.71 (61%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Myers12:33
xG 0.11–0.61 (15%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Provorov16:29
xG 0.11–1.10 (9%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).