Thu, Mar 14, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 119 | 19 | 339 |
| WPG | 212 | 07 | 25 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 11:24WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 17:23BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:00BOSJoakim NordstromAssists: Noel Acciari, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 7:38WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:02WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 17:04BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:40WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:30BOSNoel Acciari: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Kuraly – Acciari6:31
xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand13:12
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Wagner – Heinen – Frederic9:26
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Krejci – Carey – Coyle13:56
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – McAvoy8:28
xG 0.75–0.06 (93%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Chara – Clifton3:22
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Kampfer – McAvoy5:10
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Ehlers – Connor11:05
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine12:52
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 9–18goals 2–2
- Perreault – Copp – Roslovic9:36
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Little – Lowry – Tanev11:49
xG 0.16–0.58 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Trouba4:24
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Trouba16:51
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Myers – Kulikov16:25
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).