Thu, Mar 14, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 215 | 09 | 334 |
| LAK | 08 | 19 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:54LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Trevor Lewis, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:32NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Colton Sissons, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 17:59NSHColton SissonsUnassisted · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:42LAKDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:00NSHRyan Ellis: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:21NSHWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:29
xG 1.19–0.48 (71%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Sissons9:18
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Boyle – Grimaldi – Gaudreau8:08
xG 0.64–0.87 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Bonino – Simmonds – Granlund12:11
xG 0.22–0.47 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:39
xG 1.05–0.61 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:20
xG 0.82–0.43 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Subban – Ekholm18:29
xG 1.09–0.86 (56%)attempts 22–21goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom10:51
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:08
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Wagner8:01
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Leipsic10:12
xG 0.45–1.33 (26%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – LaDue13:21
xG 0.48–0.45 (51%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Martinez – Roy15:54
xG 1.19–1.30 (48%)attempts 20–21goals 1–2
- Doughty – Forbort18:43
xG 0.50–1.11 (31%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).