Thu, Mar 14, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 215 | 15 | 427 |
| SJS | 28 | 08 | 012 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Tim Heed · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:45FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jayce Hawryluk · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 14:36SJSKevin LabancAssists: Justin Braun, Brenden Dillon · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:25FLADryden HuntAssists: Troy Brouwer, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 18:49FLAMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 8:17FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Mike Hoffman, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:18SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:48FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:54SJSLogan Couture: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:26SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:41FLAJayce Hawryluk: Interference2 min
- P3 18:53FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano9:54
xG 0.64–0.71 (47%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt9:19
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:00
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- McGinn – Hawryluk – Borgstrom6:59
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Weegar14:41
xG 0.56–0.67 (46%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ekblad17:40
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Brown10:08
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Donskoi – Hertl7:22
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson4:30
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hertl – Karlsson – Meier2:38
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Nyquist4:28
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan12:37
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Heed2:33
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon12:38
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).