Fri, Mar 15, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 49 | 19 | 629 |
| TOR | 119 | 316 | 316 | 751 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Nolan Patrick · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:45TORPatrick MarleauPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 1:15PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Radko Gudas, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:26PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P2 9:27TORZach HymanAssists: Mitch Marner, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 12:29PHIRadko GudasAssists: Robert Hagg, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 13:27PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–2
- P2 16:08TORJake MuzzinAssists: Ron Hainsey, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.02 xG5–3
- P2 18:11TORJake MuzzinAssists: Connor Brown, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 2:55TORMartin MarincinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Justin Holl · Deflected, 0.01 xG5–5
- P3 15:00TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–6
- P3 17:21TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Nikita Zaitsev · Snap, 0.19 xG5–7
- P3 18:46PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.14 xG6–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:11PHIPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 17:22PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 10:42PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:42TORAndreas Johnsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:49TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:49PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:14TORNazem Kadri: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Lindblom3:26
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Patrick3:19
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom4:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Couturier3:12
xG 0.01–0.24 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere2:10
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Myers2:27
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Provorov – Myers2:17
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:30
xG 1.46–0.49 (75%)attempts 26–11goals 1–1
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:05
xG 0.65–0.42 (60%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Brown8:15
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 3–0
- Ennis – Gauthier – Moore2:54
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly13:42
xG 1.53–0.86 (64%)attempts 23–11goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Zaitsev13:22
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Marincin – Holl6:24
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).