Fri, Mar 15, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 115 | 011 | 111 | 237 |
| DAL | 111 | 014 | 016 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Paul Stastny, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 4:04DALRoope HintzUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 2:37VGKRyan ReavesGWGAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:05VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:41DALBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:16DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:17VGKColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:37DALEsa Lindell: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:33VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:38VGKNate Schmidt: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:22VGKWilliam Karlsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone11:37
xG 0.90–0.06 (93%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Bellemare7:00
xG 0.73–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:54
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Eakin – Nosek – Tuch9:07
xG 0.11–0.93 (10%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller11:46
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Engelland – Schmidt14:11
xG 0.54–0.82 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:44
xG 0.60–0.97 (38%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Seguin – Hintz8:13
xG 0.98–0.13 (89%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:13
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – L'Esperance8:39
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Nichushkin5:41
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen14:50
xG 1.32–0.23 (85%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak9:42
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell2:01
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).