Sat, Mar 16, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 211 | 29 | 16 | 526 |
| PIT | 013 | 110 | 018 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:34STLVince DunnGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 1:31STLPatrick MaroonAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 2:41STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Patrick Maroon, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 9:53PITDominik SimonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 13:57STLVince DunnPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:37STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:08STLTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P2 14:11STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:08PITDominik Simon: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:09STLIvan Barbashev: Interference2 min
- P3 13:02PITPhil Kessel: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Schenn10:56
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas9:04
xG 0.56–0.26 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- MacEachern – Sanford – Barbashev6:15
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Steen – Schwartz – Sundqvist9:07
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn12:29
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko16:33
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Del Zotto12:05
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon11:29
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blandisi4:53
xG 0.21–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Blueger12:29
xG 0.62–0.75 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Crosby – Guentzel – McCann11:10
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 9–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson10:04
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 20–8goals 1–2
- Dumoulin – Trotman11:34
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Trotman – Pettersson2:19
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).