Sat, Mar 16, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 4, Los Angeles Kings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 116 | 29 | 435 |
| LAK | 110 | 09 | 28 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Henrik Borgstrom · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:35LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:04FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 1:05LAKBrendan LeipsicAssists: Jeff Carter, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:44LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 13:47FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 18:04FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:44LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:51FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:37LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:25FLAJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:25LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:16LAKCarl Grundstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 18:59LAKBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Kopitar
- P1 20:00Kopitar hit Matheson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:37
xG 1.33–0.62 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 3–0
- McGinn – Sceviour – Borgstrom6:54
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano11:26
xG 0.81–0.90 (47%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt8:36
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad17:08
xG 1.35–0.75 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 3–2
- Pysyk – Brown8:00
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Weegar13:07
xG 0.56–1.21 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lewis – Leipsic3:23
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Grundstrom2:07
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Kopitar2:14
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom5:48
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Roy13:06
xG 1.14–0.80 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Phaneuf – Walker11:59
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort12:10
xG 0.67–0.80 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).