Sun, Mar 17, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 13 | 07 | 11 | 320 |
| MIN | 04 | 116 | 114 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 11:11MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 16:12NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Devon Toews, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 7:15MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 1:04NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:00NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P1 6:55NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:38MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:56NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:57NYIAnders Lee: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:46NYIThomas Greiss: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:11MINEric Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:59NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Ladd – Nelson – Beauvillier8:38
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Bailey – Kuhnhackl6:06
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Komarov – Clutterbuck – Martin4:00
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:12
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock14:23
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Hickey – Toews10:57
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield14:16
xG 0.29–0.80 (27%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Greenway – Kunin7:47
xG 0.60–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown6:16
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zucker11:56
xG 0.41–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Rask – Aberg – Fiala6:06
xG 0.14–0.14 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:45
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin18:16
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Seeler – Hunt8:47
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).