Sun, Mar 17, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 07 | 119 | 16 | 238 |
| PIT | 08 | 018 | 19 | 07 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:07PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Phil Kessel, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 19:41PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 4:56PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.28 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:50PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:44PITNick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P3 2:57PHIRadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:56PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:27PHIPhil Varone: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:35PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:17PITDominik Simon: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKnight – Varone – Hartman3:56
xG 0.18–0.00 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Patrick2:28
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier2:26
xG 0.11–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Konecny5:33
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers8:07
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg11:36
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon11:19
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – Rust – Blueger8:16
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – McCann11:52
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blandisi2:54
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson14:35
xG 1.01–0.24 (81%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Trotman5:56
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:48
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).