Sun, Mar 17, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 118 | 112 | 239 |
| ANA | 19 | 18 | 15 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29ANADevin ShorePPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:11FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:04ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 3:33FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 15:17ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:15FLAMark Pysyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:01FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:48ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Shore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov15:08
xG 1.15–0.58 (67%)attempts 21–9goals 2–1
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt10:26
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McGinn – Sceviour – Borgstrom6:47
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano13:54
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad19:10
xG 1.18–0.68 (63%)attempts 24–13goals 2–1
- Pysyk – Brown11:21
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Weegar17:51
xG 0.97–0.89 (52%)attempts 26–16goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Terry12:08
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore7:56
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Grant – Rowney – Jones11:27
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell6:39
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm17:39
xG 1.09–0.85 (56%)attempts 16–20goals 2–2
- Holzer – Megna12:25
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – Larsson19:27
xG 0.48–0.98 (33%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).