Mon, Mar 18, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 7, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 316 | 114 | 312 | 742 |
| SJS | 29 | 013 | 117 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brenden Dillon, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 3:37VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 5:48VGKMark StonePPAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P1 9:54SJSJoe ThorntonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 12:24VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 12:21VGKPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Colin Miller · Backhand, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 0:43VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 10:55SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Brent Burns, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 17:39VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Nate Schmidt, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–3
- P3 18:22VGKCody EakinPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.22 xG7–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:24SJSMicheal Haley: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:04SJSKevin Labanc: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:04VGKJonathan Marchessault: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:23SJSMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:08SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:53VGKAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:44VGKBrayden McNabb: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:26SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:57VGKNick Holden: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:46SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:28VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P3 10:34VGKColin Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:11SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carpenter – Bellemare9:43
xG 1.02–0.33 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault6:34
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 3–1
- Eakin – Nosek – Tuch8:38
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone10:46
xG 0.17–0.98 (15%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:15
xG 1.37–0.80 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Holden – Theodore2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt12:11
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Nyquist – Meier5:42
xG 0.68–0.36 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 1–3
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:59
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl8:40
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson8:58
xG 0.24–0.88 (21%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon11:59
xG 1.15–0.65 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 1–3
- Vlasic – Heed9:18
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Heed – Ryan2:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).