Tue, Mar 19, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 14 | 39 | 09 | 422 |
| NJD | 17 | 05 | 09 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nic Dowd, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:59NJDKenny AgostinoAssists: Joey Anderson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:57WSHBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Christian Djoos, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:16WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jakub Vrana, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:28WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:59NJDKurtis Gabriel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:34WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:51WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana5:37
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Dowd – Stephenson – Burakovsky10:06
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Connolly11:26
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana5:42
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny16:41
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Jensen – Djoos14:57
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov18:16
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestAgostino – Rooney – Anderson8:26
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Stafford – Tangradi – Pietila4:39
xG 0.19–0.20 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Pietila – Noesen2:23
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tangradi – Gabriel – McLeod6:54
xG 0.05–0.11 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Butcher17:26
xG 0.84–0.62 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Santini – Yakovlev18:07
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson15:11
xG 0.24–0.63 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).