Tue, Mar 19, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 113 | 112 | 336 |
| PHI | 08 | 016 | 19 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:21MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:45MTLShea WeberGWGAssists: Max Domi, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 8:42PHISean CouturierPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P3 18:55MTLMax DomiENAssists: Andrew Shaw, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P3 7:27MTLChristian Folin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Byron – Weal12:51
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi11:05
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi8:57
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault13:07
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak20:26
xG 1.19–0.41 (74%)attempts 22–22goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete17:19
xG 0.88–0.35 (71%)attempts 24–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Folin16:28
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom8:46
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Konecny – Patrick3:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier7:59
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Konecny8:17
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hagg3:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov19:35
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
- Gudas – Gostisbehere4:25
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).