Tue, Mar 19, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 17 | 118 | 02 | 0 | 238 |
| CAR | 011 | 110 | 114 | 04 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:38CARBrock McGinnAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:16PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 15:23PITKris LetangAssists: Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 18:04CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Dougie Hamilton scored
- 2. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
- 3. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 6. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:03PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:03CARJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:58CARBrett Pesce: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:58PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min
- P3 5:03CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P3 18:16PITJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:56PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:56PITKris Letang: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – McCann2:54
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blandisi6:07
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Rust – Blueger2:41
xG 0.01–0.05 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon11:57
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Pettersson15:01
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:01
xG 1.08–1.31 (45%)attempts 23–18goals 2–0
- Johnson – Schultz15:14
xG 0.51–0.79 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Svechnikov10:56
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Martinook – Wallmark10:31
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- McKegg – McGinn – Maenalanen5:59
xG 0.41–0.42 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho14:40
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:59
xG 0.88–0.62 (59%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury12:19
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce18:00
xG 0.97–1.09 (47%)attempts 17–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).