Tue, Mar 19, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 2, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 28 | 04 | 217 |
| STL | 113 | 315 | 316 | 744 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41STLJaden SchwartzAssists: David Perron, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 0:27STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Oskar Sundqvist · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 5:42STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 7:14STLDavid PerronAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 18:28EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Adam Larsson, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 19:23EDMZack KassianAssists: Oscar Klefbom · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 6:00STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 13:22STLPatrick MaroonAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 18:48STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Zachary Sanford, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:37STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:25EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:37EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:08EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:08STLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:28EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:43EDMAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:47EDMMilan Lucic: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P3 14:47EDMMilan Lucic: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Brodziak – Rieder – Rattie3:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Rattie – Cave – Gambardella2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins2:04
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Cave – Gambardella3:04
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Klefbom2:03
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom13:36
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning11:17
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Schwartz – Sundqvist11:33
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 3–1
- Steen – Sanford – Barbashev7:53
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko12:23
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas8:44
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko15:02
xG 1.47–0.61 (71%)attempts 23–11goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn15:25
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Del Zotto12:34
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).