Tue, Mar 19, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 08 | 08 | 022 |
| NSH | 19 | 02 | 29 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47NSHBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 9:13NSHWayne SimmondsAssists: Ryan Ellis, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P3 17:51NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.77 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:25TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:30NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P1 11:20NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:17NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner11:44
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Petan – Moore8:33
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews11:22
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen8:50
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Zaitsev12:52
xG 1.06–0.24 (82%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Holl8:30
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ozhiganov6:38
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Jarnkrok – Sissons10:40
xG 0.58–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Simmonds – Granlund8:13
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Granlund2:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Turris – Grimaldi7:02
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm14:29
xG 0.73–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Subban – Josi3:41
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:02
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).