Tue, Mar 19, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 115 | 114 | 338 |
| MIN | 011 | 112 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31COLTyson BarrieAssists: Carl Soderberg, Ian Cole · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:52MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:04COLTyson JostGWGAssists: Colin Wilson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:06COLIan ColeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:03MINNick Seeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:19COLTyson Jost: Illegal equipment2 min
- P2 1:07COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:30MINJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:30COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:19MINNick Seeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:13COLColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:07MINEric Fehr: Holding2 min
- P3 19:48COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:48MINEric Staal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Wilson – Rantanen10:04
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Wilson – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:10
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:12
xG 0.06–0.25 (21%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Compher – MacKinnon8:07
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov2:34
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Graves2:59
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Zucker13:03
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Fiala – Donato – Kunin4:16
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Fiala – Greenway – Kunin7:36
xG 0.37–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Rask – Aberg – Greenway3:36
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Hunt2:34
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin14:22
xG 0.48–0.42 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon20:34
xG 0.82–0.82 (50%)attempts 18–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).