Tue, Mar 19, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 2, Dallas Stars 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 17 | 06 | 222 |
| DAL | 18 | 115 | 214 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:49DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:38DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:57FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 10:32DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:20DALAlexander RadulovENAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Other, 0.74 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:59FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:43DALJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P2 10:06FLAHenrik Borgstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:17DALTyler Seguin: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:33DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Sceviour – Hunt – Borgstrom3:01
xG 0.01–0.01 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Sheahan – Hunt4:04
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano13:14
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Brouwer – McGinn – Borgstrom7:13
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Weegar14:53
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Brown11:54
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Matheson – Weegar2:09
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin9:05
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark6:47
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Nichushkin2:53
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Hintz – L'Esperance6:15
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen16:29
xG 1.05–0.26 (80%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Oleksiak11:03
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).