Tue, Mar 19, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 012 | 112 | 233 |
| CGY | 214 | 111 | 16 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:44CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:52CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mark Jankowski, Austin Czarnik · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 0:35CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 5:28CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Josh Anderson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:09CGYMatthew TkachukENAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:27CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:46CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:46CBJAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:55CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:08CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:22CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois13:44
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Duchene – Panarin2:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg3:19
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Sedlak2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski18:05
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 20–8goals 0–2
- Savard – Werenski2:33
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Savard – Kukan4:50
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Mangiapane – Czarnik11:15
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Quine – Lazar – Hathaway2:57
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Ryan13:35
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:49
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin14:33
xG 1.40–0.89 (61%)attempts 22–18goals 2–1
- Andersson – Fantenberg13:27
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:02
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).