Wed, Mar 20, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 4, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 06 | 412 | 425 |
| VAN | 114 | 319 | 37 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:06VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Elias Pettersson · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:32VANTanner PearsonAssists: Alex Biega, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 5:56VANJake VirtanenAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 17:00VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 0:57VANTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 8:54OTTMax VeronneauAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 9:59OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 13:42OTTOscar LindbergAssists: Bobby Ryan, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 18:01OTTAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 18:53VANBo HorvatAssists: Alexander Edler, Loui Eriksson · Deflected, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 19:20VANLoui ErikssonENAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:35OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:25OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 16:15VANTyler Motte: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindberg won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Balcers – Tkachuk2:28
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ryan – Smith – Lindberg7:01
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Paajarvi – Tierney – Balcers5:42
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Gibbons2:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Jaros11:33
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ceci – Wolanin3:47
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo2:30
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Schaller – Motte9:48
xG 0.84–0.13 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat12:51
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 3–1
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson11:56
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Granlund – Virtanen – Gaudette9:09
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Biega21:57
xG 1.29–0.65 (66%)attempts 25–16goals 3–1
- Schenn – Sautner16:12
xG 0.85–0.42 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Brisebois – Stecher12:41
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).