Thu, Mar 21, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Boston Bruins 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 19 | 311 | 527 |
| NJD | 07 | 18 | 07 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:34BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 12:58BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 14:51NJDDrew StaffordAssists: Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 0:29BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:42BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Snap, 0.61 xG4–1
- P3 19:38BOSDavid BackesAssists: Noel Acciari · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:58NJDSteven Santini: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:21NJDBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P3 3:01BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P3 7:11NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nordstrom – Acciari10:47
xG 0.86–0.36 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:04
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Heinen10:16
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Wagner – Heinen2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy13:47
xG 1.00–0.11 (90%)attempts 21–3goals 1–0
- Clifton – Carlo15:52
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Moore – Carlo2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Stafford – Pietila – Zacha10:49
xG 0.35–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Noesen10:29
xG 0.28–0.56 (34%)attempts 2–8goals 0–2
- Agostino – Rooney – Anderson8:58
xG 0.02–0.32 (7%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Tangradi – Gabriel – McLeod8:24
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Santini16:00
xG 0.78–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Carrick2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Jacobs – Yakovlev14:00
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).