Thu, Mar 21, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 010 | 08 | 028 |
| MTL | 113 | 313 | 08 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:53MTLJoel ArmiaPPGWGAssists: Jordan Weal, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:03MTLShea WeberUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:00MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Joel Armia, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 8:19MTLJordan WealAssists: Jordie Benn, Nate Thompson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:56MTLJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:35MTLShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:24NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:31NYILeo Komarov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:04MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P3 17:31NYIThomas Hickey: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:31MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Beauvillier – Fritz8:41
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal10:56
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:30
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Nelson12:27
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Mayfield16:38
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
- Hickey – Toews11:37
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock17:09
xG 0.36–0.76 (33%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Byron – Weal10:01
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:46
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi8:48
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi12:44
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete15:35
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Kulak16:53
xG 0.68–0.44 (60%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Benn – Folin13:30
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).