Thu, Mar 21, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 08 | 17 | 222 |
| STL | 18 | 26 | 210 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05DETThomas VanekAssists: Taro Hirose, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:46STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Michael Del Zotto, David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:22STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Alexander Steen, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:16STLIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 8:48DETThomas VanekAssists: Madison Bowey, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 10:19STLPatrick MaroonAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 19:11STLIvan BarbashevENAssists: Zachary Sanford, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:33DETFrans Nielsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:00STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:31DETBrian Lashoff: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Athanasiou won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Hirose11:02
xG 0.75–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi9:55
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ehn – Rasmussen – Kuffner5:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin12:34
xG 0.24–0.84 (22%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWitkowski – Lashoff12:26
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Bowey16:22
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- DeKeyser – Hronek19:14
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Schwartz – Sundqvist12:37
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Steen – Sanford – Barbashev9:50
xG 0.66–0.30 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko12:15
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas9:57
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko18:36
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn16:35
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Del Zotto12:50
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).