Thu, Mar 21, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 07 | 25 | 328 |
| CHI | 114 | 016 | 011 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Gustav Forsling, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:43PHICorban KnightAssists: Justin Bailey, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 9:50PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 18:46PHISean CouturierENAssists: Claude Giroux, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:15CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 0:59PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08PHIRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Knight – Varone – Bailey5:40
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Patrick2:05
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier10:08
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick6:45
xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Hagg12:40
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Gudas – Provorov2:39
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers11:41
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPerlini – Strome – DeBrincat11:23
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Saad – Kahun12:26
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Sikura14:27
xG 0.61–0.49 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Kruger – Kampf6:20
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Forsling13:55
xG 0.92–0.23 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom16:59
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Keith – Gustafsson17:03
xG 0.56–0.88 (39%)attempts 18–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).