Thu, Mar 21, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 18 | 211 | 332 |
| DAL | 09 | 012 | 124 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:20COLErik JohnsonAssists: Samuel Girard, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 5:19COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 14:59DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:11COLCarl SoderbergENUnassisted · Snap, 0.53 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:07DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:31DALJoel L'Esperance: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:44COLMatt Calvert: Interference2 min
- P2 13:29DALBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:20COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girard won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:17
xG 1.09–0.31 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Rantanen5:08
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Bourque – Jost2:00
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Compher – MacKinnon3:22
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie6:57
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard2:34
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Cole2:31
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Benn – Dickinson3:44
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Benn – Dickinson – L'Esperance4:28
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark9:18
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin4:49
xG 0.57–0.61 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen11:43
xG 1.10–0.66 (63%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell7:10
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen3:30
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).