Thu, Mar 21, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 18 | 07 | 120 |
| EDM | 02 | 18 | 312 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:35CBJDavid SavardAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Ryan Dzingel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 13:17EDMKyle BrodziakAssists: Joseph Gambardella, Josh Currie · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:45EDMZack KassianGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 14:02EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 16:15EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.27 xG1–4
Penalties (1)
- P3 14:49CBJMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois4:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – Anderson6:11
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Robinson4:55
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Jenner – Bjorkstrand2:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Nutivaara21:12
xG 0.66–0.68 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Harrington10:44
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski23:00
xG 0.66–0.99 (40%)attempts 19–24goals 0–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid5:51
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave8:10
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Draisaitl8:25
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Currie – Gambardella3:53
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse16:49
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Sekera – Benning17:11
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom21:48
xG 0.49–0.85 (37%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).