Fri, Mar 22, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Minnesota Wild 2, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 015 | 16 | 227 |
| WSH | 06 | 19 | 07 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:33MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Ryan Donato, Devan Dubnyk · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 10:42WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Nick Jensen, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 12:25MINLuke KuninGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:52MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:46MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:18MINBrad Hunt: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:00WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:00MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:51WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kunin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Greenway – Kunin9:13
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Parise – Fiala12:00
xG 0.59–0.28 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Zucker – Read – Rask7:20
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown7:56
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Hunt13:00
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:58
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 18–25goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Bitetto10:15
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:11
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Stephenson7:04
xG 0.12–0.26 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson10:36
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:08
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos12:38
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Jensen10:46
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Djoos2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).