Fri, Mar 22, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 111 | 26 | 00 | 326 |
| ANA | 18 | 04 | 28 | 11 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58ANARickard RakellAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:29SJSKevin LabancAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Marcus Sorensen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 2:41ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Troy Terry, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 6:29SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 15:05ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 17:20SJSJustin BraunAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 0:38ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:40ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:46ANANick Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:39SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:34ANAKorbinian Holzer: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:05SJSJoakim Ryan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:36ANADevin Shore: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 14:14SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Nyquist – Meier9:59
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Radil8:20
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl9:15
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:11
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Heed7:22
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:18
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun7:16
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Sprong6:41
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell12:25
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Shore – Terry2:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones2:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Megna11:20
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm13:32
xG 0.71–0.77 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Fowler – Welinski15:14
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).