Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 115 | 211 | 440 |
| PHI | 110 | 05 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39PHIRobert HaggAssists: Radko Gudas, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:27NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Scott Mayfield, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 10:58NYINick LeddyAssists: Mathew Barzal, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 6:16PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 16:03NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 17:26NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Leo Komarov, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:26PHIRadko Gudas: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:45PHIRobert Hagg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 2:38NYIMatt Martin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:16PHIRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 2:16PHIJakub Voracek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:12NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Bailey – Nelson9:49
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal10:08
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:02
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Komarov – Beauvillier – Fritz8:03
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews13:28
xG 0.82–0.04 (95%)attempts 23–3goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:41
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:57
xG 1.19–0.95 (56%)attempts 19–26goals 2–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Hartman – Konecny6:22
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom5:35
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick3:58
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Patrick8:46
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Myers2:26
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov15:20
xG 0.65–0.74 (47%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg13:57
xG 0.81–0.96 (46%)attempts 16–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).