Sat, Mar 23, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 7, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 116 | 513 | 110 | 739 |
| FLA | 012 | 211 | 111 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23BOSNoel AcciariAssists: David Backes, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:28BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 0:52FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 5:05BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Danton Heinen, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 6:38BOSKarson KuhlmanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 10:04FLAMike HoffmanAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Joshua Brown · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 15:48BOSSteven KampferPPAssists: Danton Heinen, John Moore · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P2 16:36BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Zdeno Chara, Jaroslav Halak · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–2
- P3 3:57FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Henrik Borgstrom · Slap, 0.18 xG6–3
- P3 19:33BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.74 xG7–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:53FLAMike Hoffman: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09FLAMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:06FLAJayce Hawryluk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:51BOSNoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:51FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:06BOSConnor Clifton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:02FLAVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:02BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:33FLAMike Matheson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:01
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Acciari8:14
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Coyle – Wagner – Heinen11:13
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman9:39
xG 0.43–1.02 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo3:11
xG 0.77–0.06 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Clifton – Carlo11:53
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy17:06
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Trocheck – Hawryluk10:37
xG 0.76–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Vatrano6:45
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Vatrano – Borgstrom2:16
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Sheahan2:03
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Brown9:40
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Yandle – Weegar6:18
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Yandle – Ekblad9:25
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).