Sat, Mar 23, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 111 | 07 | 125 |
| CAR | 011 | 213 | 39 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:06CARJordan StaalAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 5:32CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:57MINEric StaalPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 3:27CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 9:09CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Micheal Ferland, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 11:12CARTeuvo TeravainenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:56CARWarren Foegele: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:03MINAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P2 5:56CARMicheal Ferland: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 12:59CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:59MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:22CARBrett Pesce: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:22MINLuke Kunin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kunin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Foligno – Brown7:55
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Fiala2:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Read – Rask – Aberg2:44
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – Rask – Aberg5:11
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Hunt13:53
xG 0.66–0.24 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Bitetto10:24
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–3
- Suter – Spurgeon17:47
xG 0.23–0.95 (20%)attempts 13–22goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Svechnikov9:13
xG 1.05–0.05 (95%)attempts 18–4goals 3–0
- Ferland – Martinook – Wallmark10:25
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho11:35
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- McKegg – McGinn – Foegele7:25
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Pesce15:20
xG 1.57–0.20 (89%)attempts 25–8goals 4–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk12:55
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin16:29
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).