Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 110 | 19 | 331 |
| VAN | 06 | 09 | 113 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Derek Ryan, Garnet Hathaway · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 17:08CGYGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 0:38VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 7:25CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:31VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:46CGYTravis Hamonic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:46VANTyler Motte: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:23CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:23VANMarkus Granlund: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:29CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:19VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:39CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P3 18:24VANAlexander Edler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:47VANJacob Markstrom: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:43
xG 0.80–0.26 (76%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Czarnik10:29
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan8:47
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan9:52
xG 0.25–0.78 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:26
xG 1.19–0.56 (68%)attempts 23–19goals 3–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg11:24
xG 0.59–0.10 (86%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin17:45
xG 0.22–0.77 (22%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Pearson – Horvat9:39
xG 0.72–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte5:31
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson11:03
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Granlund – Virtanen – Gaudette7:44
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Biega17:11
xG 0.88–0.79 (53%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher3:45
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Biega – Sautner2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).