Sat, Mar 23, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 14 | 18 | 01 | 0 | 320 |
| LAK | 111 | 19 | 16 | 04 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47ANACam FowlerAssists: Andy Welinski, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:09LAKKyle CliffordPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Alex Iafallo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:48LAKJeff CarterAssists: Dustin Brown, Austin Wagner · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:58ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 9:42ANACarter RowneySHAssists: Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 16:07LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 2. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 3. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 4. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 5. LAK Alex Iafallo stopped
- 6. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:53ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:50ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:36ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:36LAKAdrian Kempe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:05LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:05ANAKorbinian Holzer: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:34LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28ANAJaycob Megna: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:44LAKCarl Grundstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Rakell – Shore4:09
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones10:13
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Sprong – Terry12:22
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Steel10:19
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Lindholm17:44
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Holzer – Megna11:42
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Fowler – Welinski19:39
xG 0.65–1.07 (38%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom10:04
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford9:02
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Kempe – Wagner3:26
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:50
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaDue – Walker13:11
xG 1.20–0.33 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Martinez – Roy16:05
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort14:19
xG 0.62–0.66 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).