Sun, Mar 24, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 120 | 05 | 136 |
| WSH | 111 | 17 | 112 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nick Jensen, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:47WSHTravis BoydGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nic Dowd · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 17:10PHIJakub VoracekPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 8:07WSHJakub VranaAssists: Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:18PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P1 14:22PHIJustin Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:22WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:51WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:25WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Hartman – Konecny8:01
xG 0.72–0.13 (85%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick8:07
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Hartman2:24
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Knight – Raffl – Bailey5:28
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Gostisbehere8:52
xG 0.97–0.41 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers2:19
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hagg – Myers8:54
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:04
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Burakovsky7:06
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana5:13
xG 0.11–0.20 (34%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Connolly6:46
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov14:16
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Carlson – Djoos7:31
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen2:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).