Sun, Mar 24, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 09 | 06 | 01 | 129 |
| CAR | 021 | 04 | 114 | 11 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58MTLPaul ByronAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Nate Thompson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 14:21CARTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Micheal Ferland, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 3:15CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:13MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:05CARMicheal Ferland: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:20MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46MTLJordan Weal: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault12:41
xG 1.03–0.84 (55%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi11:19
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi6:17
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Byron – Weal9:50
xG 0.07–0.64 (10%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak17:41
xG 1.25–0.98 (56%)attempts 22–25goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete17:35
xG 0.74–1.15 (39%)attempts 12–37goals 0–0
- Benn – Folin13:00
xG 0.33–1.02 (25%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho13:53
xG 1.05–0.35 (75%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Martinook – Wallmark9:02
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- McKegg – McGinn – Maenalanen5:52
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark2:01
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – van Riemsdyk13:58
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin14:42
xG 1.40–1.11 (56%)attempts 35–17goals 0–1
- Faulk – Pesce19:46
xG 0.87–1.03 (46%)attempts 23–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).