Mon, Mar 25, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 012 | 315 | 536 |
| TOR | 415 | 113 | 29 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:21TORJake MuzzinAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Nikita Zaitsev · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 11:05TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–3
- P1 13:23FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Mike Hoffman, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P1 15:04TORJohn TavaresAssists: Zach Hyman, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P1 16:25FLAMike MathesonAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jayce Hawryluk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 5:51TORJohn TavaresAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Snap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 3:57TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
- P3 5:34FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 6:51TORZach HymanAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–7
- P3 13:36FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–7
- P3 17:36FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Denis Malgin, Ian McCoshen · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:46FLAJoshua Brown: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48TORZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:43FLAFrank Vatrano: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:04FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:19TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28TORRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28TORRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28FLAJayce Hawryluk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Trocheck – Hawryluk10:37
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 2–2
- Sheahan – Vatrano – Malgin9:19
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:54
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Brouwer – McGinn – Borgstrom4:36
xG 0.06–0.33 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Brown13:59
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 22–15goals 2–2
- Yandle – Ekblad15:27
xG 0.74–0.80 (48%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Matheson – Ekblad2:22
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Kapanen11:21
xG 0.79–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner12:08
xG 0.82–0.67 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews9:30
xG 0.30–0.34 (46%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Brown – Gauthier – Moore6:40
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Zaitsev15:17
xG 1.12–0.69 (62%)attempts 23–21goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Rielly14:23
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 3–1
- Muzzin – Rielly2:21
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).