Mon, Mar 25, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 110 | 010 | 125 |
| STL | 18 | 17 | 17 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:41STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 15:12VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Colin Miller, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 18:14STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:27STLZachary SanfordAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 7:17VGKWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:14STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stone – Tuch13:13
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Smith – Tuch2:53
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Carpenter8:47
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:57
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – McNabb15:48
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 20–11goals 0–2
- Holden – Schmidt2:08
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt17:27
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Sanford – Barbashev9:06
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko14:08
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas9:37
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Schwartz – Sundqvist13:34
xG 0.11–0.91 (11%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn19:04
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo10:34
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko21:09
xG 0.29–1.10 (21%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).