Mon, Mar 25, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 1, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 07 | 05 | 119 |
| MIN | 05 | 013 | 011 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32NSHRyan JohansenSHGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:37NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:34NSHBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:34MINJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:34MINLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:34NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:14MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:24MINGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:03NSHP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P3 5:40NSHBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:10MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P3 9:10NSHRem Pitlick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:14MINPontus Aberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Kunin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Turris – Granlund – Pitlick7:41
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bonino – Simmonds6:10
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Sissons7:58
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:38
xG 0.22–0.53 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ellis – Ekholm2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin7:54
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis13:42
xG 0.30–0.57 (34%)attempts 6–25goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Greenway – Kunin9:08
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Donato10:39
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Aberg6:07
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Read – Rask2:42
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:36
xG 1.06–0.34 (76%)attempts 25–14goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler7:24
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Hunt13:47
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).