Mon, Mar 25, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 3, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 07 | 26 | 320 |
| CGY | 015 | 016 | 011 | 042 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57LAKDerek ForbortGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 11:51LAKJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Trevor Lewis, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 15:57LAKTyler ToffoliENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:08LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:33LAKJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:56LAKMatt Roy: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:04LAKTyler Toffoli: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:04CGYOscar Fantenberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:59CGYJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:17CGYGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 12:02CGYJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:58LAKMatt Roy: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:31LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:06CGYGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:06LAKDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford5:11
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom5:55
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:42
xG 0.01–0.79 (1%)attempts 5–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Walker10:16
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:39
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 7–22goals 1–0
- Martinez – Roy9:28
xG 0.01–0.53 (2%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:30
xG 0.83–0.13 (86%)attempts 22–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan8:04
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan8:53
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Czarnik7:24
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:31
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 19–2goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin16:21
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 26–15goals 0–1
- Andersson – Fantenberg9:07
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).