Tue, Mar 26, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 09 | 07 | 026 |
| CBJ | 17 | 015 | 311 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43CBJRyan DzingelPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 2:38CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Cam Atkinson, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 11:14CBJOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 19:33CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Matt Duchene, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.62 xG0–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:00NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:10CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:10NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal15:23
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:45
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Dal Colle11:47
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Komarov – Beauvillier – Fritz8:10
xG 0.15–0.75 (17%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews14:36
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:39
xG 0.44–0.58 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Pelech – Pulock17:59
xG 0.37–0.96 (28%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Nash10:16
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – Anderson12:16
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:20
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois13:12
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara19:38
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski15:51
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Kukan3:26
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).