Tue, Mar 26, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 09 | 013 | 035 |
| OTT | 216 | 07 | 28 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:07OTTAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:49OTTBrian GibbonsAssists: Christian Jaros · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 5:54OTTRudolfs BalcersPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P3 7:24OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Christian Wolanin, Brian Gibbons · Slap, 0.14 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:03OTTRudolfs Balcers: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:27BUFAlex Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:38BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:54BUFBrandon Montour: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:46OTTMark Borowiecki: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:19BUFAlex Nylander: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Rodrigues – Thompson7:00
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Rodrigues3:35
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Sheary6:10
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Thompson – Mittelstadt2:40
xG 0.06–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin2:00
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nelson – Pilut2:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Pilut2:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – White – Balcers5:59
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duclair – White2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Duclair7:20
xG 0.32–0.66 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Lindberg – Gibbons8:52
xG 0.29–0.69 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Jaros12:27
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Chabot15:44
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
- Harpur – Chabot2:41
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).