Tue, Mar 26, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 4, Edmonton Oilers 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 314 | 012 | 438 |
| EDM | 511 | 211 | 110 | 832 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 3:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Alex Chiasson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 4:36EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Mikko Koskinen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 10:39EDMZack KassianAssists: Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 14:18EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Darnell Nurse, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P1 19:48EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 7:56LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Slap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P2 11:41EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–6
- P2 14:38EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–7
- P2 16:52LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–7
- P2 19:16LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Michael Amadio, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–7
- P3 18:29EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Joseph Gambardella · Snap, 0.09 xG4–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:31EDMKyle Brodziak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:19LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07EDMAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34EDMZack Kassian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:38EDMAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:32EDMMatt Benning: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:32LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:07LAKTrevor Lewis: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:07EDMKris Russell: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:43EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:43LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom13:22
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford10:35
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:13
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 17–13goals 1–2
- Brodzinski – Amadio – Wagner7:46
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Forbort15:25
xG 0.65–0.75 (46%)attempts 20–14goals 1–2
- Martinez – Roy12:40
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Walker15:53
xG 0.56–0.92 (38%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Gambardella8:27
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave7:02
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Currie9:44
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid13:25
xG 0.91–0.94 (49%)attempts 15–16goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Larsson3:01
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom13:04
xG 0.79–0.55 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Russell – Nurse14:23
xG 0.84–0.73 (54%)attempts 10–20goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).