Tue, Mar 26, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 29 | 24 | 524 |
| VAN | 210 | 06 | 216 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09ANASam SteelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 12:50VANJake VirtanenAssists: Tim Schaller, Jay Beagle · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:00VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Josh Leivo, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 12:16ANASam SteelAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 19:09ANASam SteelUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 7:44ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 11:22ANAKiefer SherwoodGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 13:34VANJosh LeivoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 14:28VANTanner PearsonAssists: Troy Stecher, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:43ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:34VANLoui Eriksson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:09VANMarkus Granlund: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 6:55VANJosh Teves: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Steel – Sherwood8:46
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 4–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore12:52
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Sprong10:11
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones12:32
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Welinski16:03
xG 0.72–0.65 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 3–1
- Manson – Lindholm19:59
xG 0.49–0.64 (44%)attempts 13–19goals 1–3
- Holzer – Megna13:35
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Pearson – Horvat4:04
xG 0.92–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- Virtanen – Boeser – Pettersson2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Virtanen4:48
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Granlund – Baertschi – Gaudette6:10
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Teves11:13
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Schenn – Sautner10:10
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Biega – Sautner5:53
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).