Wed, Mar 27, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 2, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 010 | 14 | 223 |
| CGY | 012 | 010 | 114 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:26DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 12:24DALMiro HeiskanenPPGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 18:28CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:19CGYAustin Czarnik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:48DALJason Spezza: Interference2 min
- P3 10:44CGYDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:14DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa10:04
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Dowling – Nichushkin4:51
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin3:02
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Janmark – Hintz6:54
xG 0.09–0.34 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Oleksiak6:41
xG 0.55–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen7:08
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak2:55
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk6:14
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Lindholm – Tkachuk6:12
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan4:47
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan2:59
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin19:51
xG 0.92–0.39 (70%)attempts 25–18goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:07
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg10:47
xG 0.22–0.75 (22%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).