Thu, Mar 28, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 18 | 011 | 228 |
| CBJ | 07 | 311 | 312 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15MTLBrett KulakAssists: Max Domi, Andrew Shaw · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:42CBJDavid SavardAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:36MTLJeff PetryAssists: Phillip Danault, Brett Kulak · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:50CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Seth Jones, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:24CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Markus Nutivaara · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 2:59CBJRiley NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 4:22CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Dean Kukan · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 16:49CBJBrandon DubinskyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:15MTLShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 7:34CBJSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 8:23MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P3 7:17CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:34
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi9:58
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Deslauriers – Weal9:46
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi6:58
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Folin14:01
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete16:37
xG 0.80–0.91 (47%)attempts 22–17goals 0–2
- Petry – Kulak13:57
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Nash11:27
xG 0.89–0.08 (92%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:20
xG 0.43–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Atkinson – Duchene – Panarin9:17
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois2:56
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara14:58
xG 1.11–0.58 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 3–1
- McQuaid – Kukan4:42
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Kukan4:58
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).